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Futures trading involves financial risk & should be carefully considered before making any trades. You are solely responsible for your own trades. Charts updated from the USDA's WASDE reports. Commentary is to help make you a better trader. We believe all information to be accurate, but cannot guarantee it. Sources are the most reliable. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. We believe that each trader should develop a strategy that he/she is confident in and comfortable with.
P.O. Box 231, Pegram, TN 37143
The online version is on our website:
WELCOME!
THIS IS THE ONLINE VERSION OF
GRAINS NEWSLETTER
A proud member of the AgPulse Producer Advisor Board; A partnership between AgWeb and Greenfield Online and a proud member of Professional Farmers of America

JULY 2008
Wm. Grandmill's Original
"Automatic Year Round Investment Plan"
Explained in his own words is, "a year round safe, profitable investment plan...an easy one to do for those people who want the least complicated plan possible--as long as it is safe and profitable...The year round program is exactly that--a term of one year, from harvest to harvest. There are two parts or phases to it of about 6 months each."
Now, this basic plan calls for considering FUTURES trades if all criteria is met as follows:
WHEAT: (1st Half): (December contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on July 15th, and exit the trade on December 1st.
(2nd Half): (July contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on December 1st, and exit the trade on July 1st.
SOYBEANS: (1st Half): (November contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on May 15th, and exit the trade on November 1st.
(2nd Half): (May contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on November 15th, and exit the trade on May 1st.
CORN: (1st Half): (December contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on June 15th, and exit the trade on October 15th.
(2nd Half): (July contract): Consider whether or not to initiate a trade on November 15th, and exit the trade on July 1st.
These are the basic "Automatic Year Round Investment Plan" trades for "Investing in Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Long Term, Stress Free, Profitable", as described in detail in Mr. Grandmiil's Self-Help book.
In addition, to these 6 basic trades, there are 8 more futures and options trades that he worked out in this book.
Updated & Applied Today
We believe that Mr. Grandmill's trading concepts and basic overall approach is fundamentally sound and will continue to be profitable and effective as long as there is commodity trading. Of course, current events, conditions and supply/demand figures are constantly changing and must continually be updated.
That is the prime service this newsletter provides.

NOTE: You may, if you wish, use the Grandmill original year round investing plan rather than Dr. Gould's "all 12-months" data graphs and/or update the graphs yourself, yet still benefit from Grains Newsletter because we provide current market information in our commentary, plus updating the carryover charts from the USDA's WASDE reports each month.

SOME EXCELLENT WORDS OF ADVICE FROM DR. GOULD
"The Grandmill method is based on fundamental analysis of historical price relationships to various percent carryovers for Wheat, Soybeans, and Corn.
Accordingly, entry and exit dates of trades may not be optimal from a technical analysis perspective.
It is strongly recommended that those wishing to trade using the Grandmill method, maintain a current set of price, volume and open interest charts for each commodity traded.
These charts should indicate the current market trend and support/resistance levels and will be helpful for timing the entry and exit of trades."

DR. GOULD WROTE, "It's this reality-based nature of The Grandmill Method which, I believe, will keep the approach profitable and effective forever," in his book, "The Trading Legacy of William Grandmill", sub-titled, "Total Mastery of the Grain Markets." "His Legacy to those using The Grandmill Trading Method are his trading precepts designed to obtain maximum profit with reasonable risk. Grandmill left behind a wealth of trading ideas which can be used to obtain a personal mastery of the grain markets."
MR. GRANDMILL STRESSED: the safest trades; the minimum amount of risk money and maximum profitability. And--equally as important--know when to stay out of the market. Even if that doesn't keep your broker "happy" (collecting commissions)

The following quote is included because the question has been asked--again. The same answer--almost word for word--is already in at least one place on our website along with many other answers to questions. Long-time Grandmill method followers are familiar with periodic trend swings attributal to domestic and worldwide conditions that are not pure supply/consumption, but do influence prices for a period of time. It is necessary to adjust one's sights, so to speak, to allow some good old-time "Kentucky windage" when these conditions occur that do not coincide with the longer-term chart patterns.
"_____ you ask an excellent question, "why is the expected price range lower for May Soybeans in May than indicated in ALL your graphs" ? The answer is because the charts you refer to are based on averages of prices from 1994 to 1999 for the May contract in May for various levels of percent world carryover. In essence, these prices reflect what has happened (historical). Future market prices depended on expected and current market conditions which can differ from historical prices even for similar levels of carryover. This is the reason for monthly forecasts differing from the historical charts. Currently, Soybean prices are depressed compared to those of three years ago for the same carryover. When making my monthly price projections I attempt to incorporate current and near term future conditions. Now you might ask, "what value are the historical charts for making trading decisions if they do not give correct forecasted prices"? The value of the historic charts is they give us an idea of where prices might be at some future date IF future conditions remain about the same as the past. The ideal use of the forecasting charts is to see where prices have been for similar levels of carryover. This information will assist in making your own price forecast. The next step in making your forecast is to adjust (up or down) expected prices, taken from the price forecasting charts, to reflect current and near term prices. In essence, the historical price forecasting charts provide a starting point essential for making forecasts of future prices." James Gould

REMINDER: "The reason why I expected you to have traded in futures already, is that options are the next logical step after futures. Option prices, you see, are based on the price of the underlying futures." Wm. Grandmill
"There are times when you will find it more appropriate to use an option for your wheat trade instead of using backup capital." Wm. Grandmill.
"Options can be used instead of backup money to finance your corn investment. In some cases, options are a preferable method of financing a corn position." Wm. Grandmill
"The forecasting graphs were designed to function with both futures and options. In fact, the forecasting graphs work hand in hand with the option graph..." Wm. Grandmill.
"Always use options to trade soybeans between May and the beginning of September." Wm. Grandmill.

Remember, Dr. Gould has made available the Options Evaluator CD's for Wheat, Corn and Soybeans that find the most profitable option strategy for you when you enter the current information into the spreadsheet format that the program leads you through step by step. While futures contracts are more profitable, they require more backup money and have more downside risk. Options risk is limited to the premium paid only. See the subscribe page.

Dr. Gould's trade recommendations often include the words, "watch volume & open interest" for various tips such as the beginning of a trend, etc. In the menu bar: "Meet Mr. Grandmill & Dr. Gould", it is noted that Dr. Gould researched and developed a system he called PVEV (Price, Volume and EquiVolume) while at Cornell university.
Part of that system incorporates volume and open interest in commodity futures.
There is an excellent description of the what and why of the importance of volume and open interest at the following website: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/learning/volume_open_interest.html

JULY 2008 Commentary

It's been a little over 13 years since William Grandmill mailed out his Spring 1995 issue he described as his "last newsletter ever". Among his disappointed subscribers, we decided to publish a Fall issue with the chart updates from the latest WASDE report together with current farm and market information we collected from as many sources as possible. At least subscribers could put Mr. Grandmill's teachings into practice to "be your own advisor".

Then followers of the Grandmill method got the luckiest break possible when another former subscriber to Mr. Grandmill's original twice-a-year newsletter took notice of our effort and offered his expertise. He was (and is) the foremost living authority on the Grandmill method, Dr. James S. Gould, Professor of Marketing at the prestigious Pace University and author of internationally distributed, "The Trading Legacy of William Grandmill". His Grandmill method trade recommendations have been the highlight of every issue of Grains Newsletter ever since. Also included has been his own original short term trading strategy that he developed independently: "Price, Volume and Open Interest" trade recommendations once the feature article in Futures Magazine.

Dr. Gould has continued to update Mr. Grandmill's original unique charts and graphs, and expanded them to make possible considering trades in every month of the year for the original contract months based on the same historical price/carryover relationships used in Mr. Grandmill's original only twice a year trading opportunities. Dr. Gould's own words bear repeating here:

"I consider William Grandmill's trading concepts--and basic overall approach--to be fundamentally sound and impervious to the passage of time. Trading decisions are made based on what is actually occurring in the grain markets using a wide variety of unique techniques and original tables. It's this reality-based nature of The Grandmill Method which, I believe, will keep the approach profitable and effective forever. However, I do recognize that some of the data within his highly creative and original Tables does require some periodic updating to maintain maximum effectiveness. As that information will, obviously, no longer be forthcoming from him, I will be attempting to do some (or all) of that maximum effectiveness updating myself. As you delve into William Grandmill's treasure trove of grain trading techniques--and familiarize yourself with his approach--I invite you to contact me for information on any updates I may be able to supply you with. My preferred method of communication is e-mail; I can be reached at: jgould@pace.edu I also can be contacted by regular mail at: Dr. James Gould, Pace University, 1 Martine Avenue, White Plains, NY 10600."

As this is the LAST newsletter ever of GRAINS NEWSLETTER, we urge you to avail yourselves of his kind, generous offer.

You might say we're ending on a "high" note? The price of everything (except salaries and wages?) is rapidly rising to new highs and corn for ethanol and crude oil are sharing the blame in the media and in most people's minds. Once upon a time there was a down to earth, common sense, far-sighted U.S. president named Jimmy Carter. Politicians, media & big business have been very unkind by painting his policies as failures (while totally ignoring them). Until now, they also ignored the government of Brazil that, like the U.S., experienced the artificial oil shortages created by the Saudis in the early 1970's. But unlike the administrations that followed the Carter presidency, Brazil acted to become totally independent of imported oil. After nearly 30 years they succeeded. During that same '70's crisis, then president Jimmy Carter outlined his plan for the U.S. to become independent of imported oil. It went in part like this:

"We can't go on consuming 40 percent more energy than we produce. When we import oil we are also importing inflation plus unemployment. We've got to use what we have. The Middle East has only five percent of the world's energy, but the United States has 24 percent. We remember when the phrase "sound as a dollar" was an expression of absolute dependability, until ten years of inflation began to shrink our dollar and our savings. We believed that our nation's resources were limitless until 1973, when we had to face a growing dependence on foreign oil. You know we can do it. We have the natural resources. We have more oil in our shale alone than several Saudi Arabias. We have more coal than any nation on Earth. We have the world's highest level of technology. We have the most skilled work force, with innovative genius, and I firmly believe that we have the national will to win this war...

Point one: I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 -- never. From now on, every new addition to our demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation. The generation-long growth in our dependence on foreign oil will be stopped dead in its tracks right now and then reversed as we move through the 1980s, for I am tonight setting the further goal of cutting our dependence on foreign oil by one-half by the end of the next decade -- a saving of over 4-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day.

Point two: To ensure that we meet these targets, I will use my presidential authority to set import quotas. I'm announcing tonight that for 1979 and 1980, I will forbid the entry into this country of one drop of foreign oil more than these goals allow. These quotas will ensure a reduction in imports even below the ambitious levels we set at the recent Tokyo summit.

Point three: To give us energy security, I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds and resources in our nation's history to develop America's own alternative sources of fuel -- from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol, from unconventional gas, from the sun.

I propose the creation of an energy security corporation to lead this effort to replace 2-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day by 1990. The corporation I will issue up to $5 billion in energy bonds, and I especially want them to be in small denominations so that average Americans can invest directly in America's energy security.

Just as a similar synthetic rubber corporation helped us win World War II, so will we mobilize American determination and ability to win the energy war. Moreover, I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this nation's first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000.

These efforts will cost money, a lot of money, and that is why Congress must enact the windfall profits tax without delay. It will be money well spent. Unlike the billions of dollars that we ship to foreign countries to pay for foreign oil, these funds will be paid by Americans to Americans. These funds will go to fight, not to increase, inflation and unemployment.

Point four: I'm asking Congress to mandate, to require as a matter of law, that our nation's utility companies cut their massive use of oil by 50 percent within the next decade and switch to other fuels, especially coal, our most abundant energy source.

Point five: To make absolutely certain that nothing stands in the way of achieving these goals, I will urge Congress to create an energy mobilization board which, like the War Production Board in World War II, will have the responsibility and authority to cut through the red tape, the delays, and the endless roadblocks to completing key energy projects.

We will protect our environment. But when this nation critically needs a refinery or a pipeline, we will build it.

Point six: I'm proposing a bold conservation program to involve every state, county, and city and every average American in our energy battle. This effort will permit you to build conservation into your homes and your lives at a cost you can afford.

I ask Congress to give me authority for mandatory conservation and for standby gasoline rationing. To further conserve energy, I'm proposing tonight an extra $10 billion over the next decade to strengthen our public transportation systems. And I'm asking you for your good and for your nation's security to take no unnecessary trips, to use carpools or public transportation whenever you can, to park your car one extra day per week, to obey the speed limit, and to set your thermostats to save fuel. Every act of energy conservation like this is more than just common sense -- I tell you it is an act of patriotism.

Now, some 40 years later, if you think any of this sounds like what many are proposing today (even by the administration & congress with the reputation for being the biggest, most wasteful spenders in history), we think so too. The only real differece we notice is the increased degree of dependency and the larger volume of imports that need to be reduced now. We especially like the idea of Americans participating and investing with small denomination energy bonds similar to the WWII war bomds (and even a stamp book that when filled, converted to an $18.75 bond that became $25) instead of borrowing from abroad.

JULY 2008 WASDE REPORT SUMMARY

WHEAT: U.S. winter and the first survey-based spring crop results in higher U.S. as well as higher world supplies which are at a record high. Projected 2008/09 producer price range is unchanged from last month at $6.75 to $8.25 bu. Grandmill notes that prices normally seasonaly decline into harvest.

CORN: Despite the U.S. corn belt heavy rains and floods that caused considerable crop losses, ending stocks are projected higher as feed & residual use is down due to the high price. 2007/08 farm price is unchanged at $4.25 to $4.45 bu. But the 2008/09 producer price range is up 20¢ on both ends at $5.50 to $6.50 bu.

SOYBEANS: Both U.S. & global stocks are down slightly, but the projected 2008/09 producer price is up $1.00 on both ends at $12.00 to $13.50 bu. This is a strong demand market.

SOYBEAN OIL: Producer price is up 7¢ on both ends of the price range despite reduced use at 59¢ to 63¢ lb.

SOYBEAN MEAL: Again, despite increased U.S. & global supply, the price is up $60 on both ends at $355 to $514 short ton.

* Wheat marketing year begins June 1st. Corn and Soybeans marketing year begins September 1st. World data for soybeans is adjusted to Argentina & Brazil's marketing year that begins October 1st.

For the balance of 2008, reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. on the following dates: 2008 WASDE Release Dates: Aug 12, Sep 12, Oct 10, Nov 10, Dec 11.


CHART UPDATES
Updated for July 2008

SOYBEANS
93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
U.S. Total Supply (bu.)2170273125162573282629433006305231412969263832423322364731693171
U.S. Total Use (bu.)1961239623332441262625952716280429332791252529862873307330442996
U.S. Carryover209335183132200348290248208178113256449574125175
U.S. Carryover as % of Total Use11%14%8%5%7.6%13.4%10.7%9%7.1%6.4%4.5%8.6%15.6%18.7%4.1%5.8%
U.S. Total Supply as % of Total Use106%139%105%110%116%112%115.8%112%112%101%94.5%128%111%127%103%104%
Average Farm Price ($)6.606.405.486.727.356.474.634.544.385.537.345.745.666.4310.1512.75
AR, BR, U.S. Combined Total Supply (m.m.t.)DATA106.4123.15117.98119.73112.48109.7115.34126.73134.49136.37152.92178.82169.17172.89
AR, BR, U.S. Total UseDATA91.22102.16102.98108.7490.0488.6392.2999.84103.25103.21112.25122.31124.74128.55
AR, BR, U.S. CarryoverDATA14.820.991510.9922.4421.0723.0526.8931.2433.1640.6756.5144.4344.34
AR, BR, U.S. Carryover as % of Total UseDATA16.2%20.5%14.6%10.1%25%23.8%25%26.9%30.1%32.1%36.2%46.2%35.6%34.5%
AR, BR, U.S. Total Supply as % of Last Year's Total UseDATA123%135%115%116%103%122%130%127%135%132%148%159%138%139%
World Supply (m.m.t)Data>137.8155.7149148.7170186.8187.5202.5216.14231.48225.02268.13287.72281.03286.74
World Use (m.m.t.)Data121.1132.2131.6135.8148.4160.2160.5171.8183.96190.73190.02215.25225.26232.19237.87
World Carryover (m.m.t.)Data16.723.417.512.921.626.22730.632.1840.7535.0052.8862.4648.8448.87
World Carryover as % of Total UseData13.8%17.7%13.3%9.5%14.6%16.3%16.8%17.8%17.5%21.4%18.4%24.6%27.7%21%20.5%
World Carryover as % of Last year's Total UseDataDataDataData113%125%126%117%126%126%126%118%141%134%125%124%
Marketing year begins Sept. 1st. World data adjusted to Oct.-Sept. marketing year for Argentina & Brazil. Current year figures are Estimated, last column is Projected. Both are subject to revision in the next WASDE report.

CORN
93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
U.S. Total Supply (bu.)8470109628948967210091108511232116391141610578111901277613237125141422813168
U.S. Total Use (bu.)7620940585228789879192989515974098209491102321066211270112101279512495
U.S. Carryover85015584268831308178717171899159610879582114196713041433673
U.S. Carryover as % of Total Use11%16.6%5%10%14.9%19.2%18%19.5%16.3%11.5%9.4%19.8%17.5%11.8%11.2%5.4%
Total Supply as % of Last Year's Total Use100%144%95%114%115%126%121%122%117%108%118%125%124%111%127%103%
Average Farm Price ($)2.502.263.242.712.431.941.821.851.972.322.422.062.003.044.356.00
Total World Supply (m.m.t)578.4632.6609.6660.5667.8703.7775.9759.3750.32749.74747.30815.48829.00838.24898.66899.92
Total World Use (m.m.t.)506.4539.7543.8569.1581.3581604.4605.4621.69627.31647.18685.20703.89728.38774.02794.61
World Carryover (m.m.t.)72.192.965.891.486.5122.8171.5153.9128.63122.43100.12130.28125.11109.86124.64105.31
World Carryover as % of Total Use14.2%17.2%12.1%16%14.9%21%28.4%25.4%20.7%19.5%15.5%19%17.8%15.1%16.1%13.3%
Total World Carryover as % of Last year's Total Use125%113%121%117%121%134%126%124%121%119%126%121%119%123%116%
Marketing year begins September 1st. Current year figures are Estimated, last column is Projected. Both are subject to revision in the next WASDE report.

WHEAT
93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
U.S. Total Supply (bu.)3036298127572746302033733339327229412460289927752726250525802816
U.S. Total Use (bu.)2467247523812302229824272390239621641969235322352155204923252329
U.S. Carryover569507376444722946949876777491546540571456255487
U.S. Carryover as % of Total Use23%20.5%15.8%19.3%31.4%39%39.7%36.6%35.9%25%23.2%24%26.5%22.3%11%20.9
U.S. Total Supply as % of Last Year's Total Use123%121%114%115%131%147%138%137%123%114%147%118%122%116%126%121%
Average Farm Price ($)3.263.454.554.303.382.652.482.622.783.563.403.403.424.266.487.50
Total World Supply (m.m.t)704666.7655.6689.6722.8727761.4788.7787.30769.02719.71761.18772.06743.24737.55780.29
Total World Use (m.m.t.)562.1548.7550.3576.5584.5589.8591.4584.4586.34601.40588.74609.96624.37615.45621.50647.23
World Carryover (m.m.t.)141.9118105.3113.1138.4137.2170.0204.3200.96167.62130.97151.22147.69126.79116.05133.06
World Carryover as % of Total Use25.3%21.5%19%19.6%23.7%23.3%28.7%35%34.3%27.9%22.2%24.8%23.6%20.5%18.5%20.4
Total World Carryover as % of Last year's Total Use129%119%119%125%125%124%129%133%135%131%120%129%127%119%120%126%
Weighted Carryover percentage 60% World/40% U.S.24.4%21.1%17.7%19.5%26.8%29.6%33.1%35.6%34.9%26.7%22.6%24.5%24.8%21.2%15.5%20.6%
Marketing year begins June 1st. Current year figures are Estimated, last column is Projected. Both are subject to revision in the next WASDE report.

Dr. Gould's Grandmill trade recommendations differ from Mr. Grandmill's original because he created graphs for all 12 calendar months of the year while in the process of updating the data for Mr. Grandmill's graphs. (See "The Trading Legacy Of William Grandmill" by Dr. Gould available from Windsor Books, P.O. Box 280, Brightwaters, NY 11718. Toll-free order hotline: 1-800-321-5934 or Fax orders: 516-321-1435)

This revolutionary step permits considering the feasibility of initiating trades for the target contract months in any month of the year compared to basically only twice a year in the original "automatic year round investment plan".

NOTE: Question 1: What is meant by Short Term and Long Term?

Short term is until the next WASDE report. Long Term is until contract expiration.

Question 2: How do I use this to consider trades? For short term trades, watch carefully and expect to close out position within the month.

Question 3: The safety margin is or is not satisfied refers to Mr. Grandmill's built-in safety pad (amount to deduct from expected chart profit) of 12 cents for Wheat and/or Corn futures, 100% for Wheat and/or Corn options, and 42 cents for Soybeans futures, 75% for Soybeans options.

Grains Newsletter is the only place on earth that offers Dr. Gould's Grandmill principle chart updates and the only place on earth that publishes his monthly Grandmill principle trade recommendations. Dr. Gould has a long record of presentations of systems that he developed independent of Mr. Grandmill's works. He has had many papers published in additon to "The Trading Legacy of William Grandmill", available from Windsor Books, and the original charts and updates offered through Grains Newsletter. He is also a successful Grandmill method trader himself, although trading is not his major occupation. His charts and updates and his trade recommendations are his own and Grains Newsletter is not responsible for them, even though we highly respect Dr. Gould and his work. He offers his trade recommendations for comparison purposes only. Neither Dr. Gould nor the editor of Grains Newsletter are CFA's and are not responsible for any use anyone may make of Dr. Gould's trade recommendations other than for comparison purposes with his/her own independent determinations only.

IF YOU FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT A TRADING POSITION, BUT IT DOES NOT MEET THE FULL SAFETY MARGIN, THE GRANDMILL METHOD DOES NOT PROHIBIT YOU FROM MAKING THE TRADE--YOUR RISK IS JUST HIGHER THAN WITH THE FULL SAFETY MARGIN AND YOU MAY NEED MORE BACKUP CAPITAL (MARGIN) TO RIDE THE TRADE OUT UNTIL YOU REALIZE A PROFIT. SEE THE "NOTES ON TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS AT THE END OF DR. GOULD'S TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS".

Michael, the Editor of Grains newsletter forwarded your question to me. You asked the same question as I did. Namely, why was my May Soybean Contract price forecast for February-March so far off? The answer is when the forecast was made in early February fundamental and technical market indicators indicated a declining market. After the forecast was made information of droughts and reported Soybean Rust in Brazil and Argentina were reported. Additionally, funds unloaded their short positions resulting in (unexpected) buying power and higher prices. Monthly I compare my projections to actual prices. My forecasts for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat are in range about 80 percent of the time.

When presenting forecasts I give support and resistance prices and indicate one should watch volume and open interest as price approaches and/or penetrated support/resistance levels. Keeping this in mind one is able to place a stop to exit a trade in the event their position is wrong OR take a new position in the direction of the prevailing trend when support/resistance is penetrated on increasing volume and open interest.

Throughout February, after the February-March price forecast was made, I noticed increasing volume and open interest accompanying the price rise in Soybeans. This suggests buying power is strong and a long position could be profitable.

As a trader you should make your own trading decisions based on Grandmill's trading method and your assessment of what future prices will be. The ideal use of my forecast is to supplement your assessment of future prices.

Finally, I appreciate your taking time to write and asking why the February-March price forecast was so far off target. Hopefully my explanation has answered your question.

Sincerely, James S. Gould

HELP US HELP YOU

Now that you have had over a year and a half of previous newsletters to experience Dr. Gould's Analysis of Closing Prices, Volume & Open Interest for SHORT TERM trades, Dr. Gould would like to know whether you find those trade recommendations helpful or not. Your comments are greatly appreciated. Thank you.

Email: Dr. J. Gould

IMPORTANT! Trading positions based on Closing Prices must be monitored daily since the forecast is for a shorter time period. Dr. Gould's Closing Prices, Volume & Open Interest trading position recommendations are based on closing prices as of June 9, 2008. If you take a similar position, you must monitor closing prices, volume & open interest daily from the time you take a position based on this method. Trade in the direction of the prevailing trend. Use trailing stops when using this method.

Dr. Gould's Grandmill Trade Recommendations for
JULY 2008
For a complete explanation of these trade Grandmill principle recommendations see the notes at the end of Dr. Gould's trade recommendations (Now in 2 Sections: Section 1 for Grandmill principle trades and Section 2 for Price, Volume & Open Interest SHORT TERM trading positions).

Also note the NEWEST FEATURE: "A THOUGHT FOR THE MONTH"

(July 10, 2008)
"...tomorrow is WASDE day. I will have the price forecasts to you by Monday. This months forecasts will be based on the new price forecasting tables. I will also have short term forecasts based on my forecasting method.
During the past two years there has been a SHIFT in the price response function for grains. Prior to this there was a MOVEMENT in the price response function so earlier price forecasting tables gave reasonably good forecasts. The new price forecasting tables are based on the price response function SHIFT.
While re-reading Grandmill I noted he indicates grain prices tend to fall at this time of year to harvest. I notice this has been happening (although at a higher price level than in the past--attributed to the SHIFT in the price response function).
Looking at the price of heating oil on the NMX I am asking myself how people will pay for oil to heat their homes this winter. I believe we (and the world) are headed for some severe economic problems. Looking at the calendar this is only a few months away.
Regards, Jim"

Grain Futures Contract Specs

Times listed are Central Time

CONTRACT MONTH SYMBOLS
Jan.=F Feb.=G Mar.=H Apr.=J May=K Jun.=M Jul.=N Aug.=Q Sep.=U Oct.=V Nov.=X Dec.=Z

Note: Expanded limits may apply
Contract Exchange Trading Hours Contract Size Months Traded Tick Size Limit
Corn CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
12c = $600
Corn MA 9:30A - 1:45P CT 1000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/8c = $1.25
1c = $10
12c = $120
Oats CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
10c = $500
Soybeans CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. FHKNQUX 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
30c = $1500
Soybeans MA 9:30A - 1:45P CT 1000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/8c = $1.25
1c = $10
30c = $300
Soybean Meal CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 100 Tons FHKNQUVZ 1 pt. = $1
100 pts. = $100
1000 = $1000
Soybean Meal MA 9:30A - 1:45P CT 50 Tons FHKNQUVZ 2 pts. = $1
100 pts. = $50
1000 = $500
Soybean Oil CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 60,000 lbs. FHKNQUVZ 1 pt. = $6
100 pts. = $600
100 pts. = $600
Soybean Oil MA 9:30A - 1:45P CT 30,000 lbs. FHKNQUVZ 2 pts. = $6
100 pts. = $300
100 pts. = $300
Wheat CBOT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
20c = $1000
Wheat MA 9:30A - 1:45P CT 1000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/8c = $1.25
1c = $10
20c = $200
Wheat KCBT 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
25c = $1250
Wheat MGE 9:30A - 1:15P CT 5000 Bu. HKNUZ 1/4c = $12.50
1c = $50
20c = $1000

The information contained herein is NOT guaranteed, but has been compiled from sources considered reliable and accurate. Commodity contracts can and do change specifications from time to time--please consult your trading desk for the most accurate data. Limits are subject to change under extreme conditions. This information is provided solely as general information for your private use.

HERE ARE THE ALL NEW, SIMPLE, ONE CLICK VERY LATEST CBOT PRICES!
Updated every 10 minutes for all of the active contract months.
JUST CLICK ON THE PICTURE OF EITHER WHEAT, SOYBEANS OR CORN FULL FUTURES OR MINI-CONTRACTS
When you're through checking, use the "back" button on your browser to
come back here and then you can click on the next one.

LATEST CBOT CORN PRICE UPDATE

LATEST CBOT WHEAT PRICE UPDATE

LATEST CBOT SOYBEANS PRICE UPDATE

Below are the latest CBOT PRICE UDATES for the following MINI-CONTRACTS

LATEST CBOT CORN MINI-CONTRACT PRICE UPDATE

LATEST CBOT WHEAT MINI-CONTRACT PRICE UPDATE

LATEST CBOT SOYBEANS MINI-CONTRACT PRICE UPDATE

Finally, below are the latest CBOT price updates for SOYBEAN OIL and SOYBEAN MEAL contracts

LATEST CBOT SOYBEAN MEAL OIL UPDATE

LATEST CBOT SOYBEAN MEAL PRICE UPDATE

Click Below for CHARTS also SHOWING VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST
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CORN
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BELOW ARE CONTINUOUSLY UPDATED HEADLINES
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Not all headlines are specific to Wheat, Soybeans or Corn Futures or even crop conditions,
but when they do make the news, they are included.
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CAVEAT
Neither Dr. Gould nor the editor or publisher of Grains newsletter are Commodity Trading Advisors, and no suggested, hypothetical or illustrative trades of Grandmill trading strategies should be considered to be recommendations by either of us. Neither Dr. Gould nor Grains Newsletter assumes any liability for any losses individual traders may incur from attempting any of the trades mentioned. Market conditions and fundamental situations may change from the time these trades were calculated. No representation is made or implied that they will achieve the desired results indicated. Your trades are your own and as Mr. Grandmill so often urged his readers, you are advised to "be your own advisor."

"Investing In Wheat, Soybeans, Corn" and other Wm. Grandmill books are available from Windsor Books. Dr. Gould's "The Trading Legacy of William Grandmill"--we believe a necessary companion to the Grandmill books--is also available from Windsor Books:

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Acquire wealth slowly. Trade with safety. Use "Safety Margins with Grandmill trades. With Dr. Gould's PVOI trades, use stops and check closing price daily